Let me guess: you just endured a heartbreaking loss in week 13 knocking you out of fantasy playoffs and ensuring yourself a finish out of the money. Now you’re thinking that your only option is prepping for next season to give yourself a better chance at making some money. There is another option, however, and that my friends, is the world of sports betting. Welcome to the first edition of ‘Against the Spread.’
Before I go any further, I want to lay down a couple of ground rules that I live by.
- Never gamble more than you can afford
- Don’t chase the Sunday Night game to try to win back all your losses from earlier in the day/week.
- I am not guaranteeing these games so please don’t burn my house down if you happen to take my advice and lose. Remember I am betting with you and we are in this together.
- This is the first edition of this article, but in the future, I will give you my record from the previous week.
If I still have your attention, here is my guide to week 14, and the games I will be betting on.
My Favorite Game
Washington- ½ at Philadelphia
This is shocking to me. Washington hit a tiny rough patch the last 2 weeks but still remains a tough team to play. Losing to Dallas and Arizona in back-to-back road games is nothing to be ashamed of. They even covered the spread in the loss to Dallas. But the more important issue here is that Philadelphia has lost 5 of their last 6 and Carson Wentz has not looked like the same QB that started the season.
Games I Love
Oakland +3 ½ at Kansas City
Get on this one quick as they play tonight. Here’s my take, Kansas City seems to play close games regardless of their opponent. I think this game is a toss up and will come down to the last possession. The good news for you is that Kansas City lives by the field goal and if they end up kicking it to win the game, the Raiders will still cover. The other reasons I am taking Oakland is the fact that they are 5-0 on the road and lost to Kansas City earlier in the season. It is always tough to sweep a division opponent, especially when the division is on the line.
Bengals -5 at Cleveland
Robert Griffin III was just named the starting QB for week 14 after being out for 13 weeks from a broken left shoulder and now faces a confident Bengals team coming off a blowout of the Eagles. I think it’s safe to say that RGIII will have some rust, and a for guy that is already towards the bottom of the league in terms of QBR, rust is a huge red flag. Cleveland could be on their way to a 0-16 season, but maybe more importantly, as of now, they are 1-11 against the spread.
Pittsburgh -2 at Buffalo
Since their loss to Baltimore (Big Ben’s first game back from injury), the Steelers have looked like a completely different team. After losing a heartbreaker to Dallas in the final minute in week 10, they have rattled off 3 straight decisive wins and look like one of the teams to beat in AFC. Buffalo has struggled against the spread this year going 4-8 and a few of their key pieces on offense are still beat up. Pittsburgh by a field goal seems like a steal.
Games I Hate
San Diego at Carolina -1 ½
I wouldn’t touch this game with a 10-foot pole. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers ran away with this one, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Panthers ran away with this one. I also wouldn’t be shocked if the spread was accurate. When 2 inconsistent teams play each other, you don’t know what to expect so don’t bet on it.
Houston at Indianapolis -6
I do think Indianapolis wins this game to take control of the AFC South. However, I hate the 6-point spread. I could see the Texans keeping this one close but I can also see the Colts repeating last week’s performance as the Colts O-line looked great and gave Luck all day to throw. There are too many back-and-forth scenarios for me to pick a side.
Seattle at Green Bay +3
I don’t know what to think about either of these teams. The two perennial powerhouses in the NFC have been completely unpredictable. Seattle still has a good enough record for the 2 seed in the NFC but when they lose, they look awful. In the 3 of the 4 games in which they lost or tied, they were held to 6 points or less. But then they put up 31 in New England and 40 against Carolina. Green Bay is similar in that one week they look great, the next they look awful. Also, both teams are 6-6 against the spread this season, so good luck picking a winner in this one.