Here we are with another list of 10. Of course, the only way to follow-up ten sleepers is to give you guys ten busts. If you also are interested in my sleepers list, you can click here.
So let’s start by defining a bust. A bust in fantasy football is a player who underperforms their expected outcome for that season. So basically the guy you draft, expecting a lot out of, and you end up being disappointed expect for two or three weeks throughout the season. Looking at you Todd Gurley, our editor Ryan knows first hand. Hopefully, this article will show you that maybe the guy you were looking at drafting may not be the best choice.
10 Fantasy Busts For The 2017 Season
This list was made using FantasyFootballCalculator.com and their ADP’s in a standard ten team draft. Let’s get into it.
1. Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 34/4.04)
Carlos Hyde is going WAY too high and please do not take the risk. Trust me, you would prefer to be right about him being a bust rather than taking a chance on him. In case you haven’t read the news on Hyde, let’s go through it.
The new coach Kyle Shanahan and new GM John Lynch have both stated or showed that this running game has to improve and their plans look to not include much more of Hyde. John Lynch drafted rookie runner Joe Williams in the fourth round of this year’s draft and the reason for his fall was off the field issues and a brief retirement due to football being too much. But that did not stop coach Kyle Shanahan reportedly asking John Lynch for this speedster to use in a Tevin Coleman like role in his offense. Plus the addition of Tim Hightower looks a lot like Hyde’s touches this season drastically falling. Some reports and articles have Carlos Hyde as a possible trade or surprise cut before the season starts. If he does change teams you can reconsider Hyde, but if he stays on the 49ers, you need to leave him alone.
2. Eddie Lacy, RB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 61/6.09)
I think this might be the biggest bust in fantasy. Seriously, did we all forget about Thomas Rawls? Also, did we see the same Lacy last season? I know he’s struggled with weight and injuries but the dude has definitely lost a step in his play.
Rawls will take this job and show why there was hype around him in 2015. Lacy will have to battle him for a two down role as it’s expected C.J. Prosise to take over third downs and all the receptions for the running backs. You can say Rawls hasn’t been available but neither has Lacy. They both struggled last season but I can’t expect Lacy to go into a new system, win his weight battle, and be a valuable fantasy starter. I wish him all the best but I can’t.
Star quarterback Russell Wilson threw for a career high 546 attempts last season and it will probably just increase as the Seattle run game dips in productivity. I’m telling you, stay away.
3. Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Giants (ADP: 60/6.09)
Brandon Marshall has been in this league a long time and most years he’s put up decent fantasy numbers. Don’t expect it in 2017. While the 34-year-old Marshall is expected to be the number two, that won’t last long. We all know the Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. but let’s not forget about second-year man Sterling Shepard.
In his rookie year, Shepard had 65 receptions for 683 yards and 8 touchdowns. That’s not bad for a rookie. Marshall will have a hard time fighting for targets with a second-year guy on this rise and even when he had over 100 targets last year he was a terrible fantasy wideout. The decrease in targets and an offense where he’s not the number one makes this a scary pick. Too many mouths to feed and age make this wideout easy to pass up on.
4. Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans (ADP: 25/ 3.04)
I know it was his first year in Houston in 2016, but Lamar Miller had 268 carries last year and barely had over 1,000 yards. The offense overall was bad but Miller was just downright inefficient and expect it to carry over this season. Houston still will use him as the number one guy and that will give a lot of people hope for the Houston runner this year. But let’s look at the Texans draft this offseason.
When you see that Houston drafted D’onta Foreman this year it looks like he will be the goal line back and that takes away from Miller’s touchdowns, and he only had six total last year. If Miller struggles early, this backfield could very easily turn into a committee with him, Foreman, and backup Alfred Blue each having roles. Even the offensive line did not really improve this offseason and quarterback is still a question mark for the offense. Miller is too much of a risk, especially for the asking price of the third round.
5. Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 39/4.08)
There is no denying Allen Robinson’s talent level. If he was in a better situation, I’d like him a lot more. But let’s look at what the Jags have done this offseason.
Decide to go with Blake Bortles another year and drafted Leonard Fourtnette. With the first one, we have an unproven quarterback that may not even keep the starting job all season if he continues his poor play from last season. His decrease in touchdowns over the last year from 35 touchdowns to 23 takes away from Robinson’s value.
The drafting of Leonard Fournette and the coaches even saying it shows they want to be a much more balanced attack this year. Fournette will get a lot of chances on the goal-line with this mindset change and that takes away some of Robinson’s chances. With the decrease in Bortle’s attempts as well, Robinson does not seem to provide much from a fantasy angle this year.
6. Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 37/4.06)
The Chiefs showed they wanted something more out of their backfield when they drafted Kareem Hunt in the third round. Some reports even project Hunt taking over the starting role.
Whether Ware wins the starting job or not be weary of this draft pick. Ware only had five touchdowns last season and struggled down the stretch only garnering three total touchdowns in the final 10 games of the regular season. Now the Chiefs have been vocal about their support of the Ware, but if his play does not improve from last season you can expect to see Kareem Hunt to take over the starter role.
Also, Charcandrick West is still in this running back room and his targets increased the last two weeks of the season as Ware struggled. Ware has not shown enough on the field to take a risk on.
7. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 68/7.07)
The man finally rushes for over 1,000 yards and the next season he’s in a bust article. Well when the Saints draft Alvin Kamara and sign one of the greatest running backs in history, Mark Ingram take hits on his fantasy value. I know Adrian Peterson has seen a lot of wear and tear in this league but the mans one of the greatest athletes ever. Expect him to steal some work and maybe even the starting role if he stays healthy.
The Saints continue to provide reasons to not pick Mark Ingram by drafting Alvin Kamara in the third round. With the Saint’s defense not really getting any better, you can expect Drew Brees to keep leading the league in pass attempts, and attempts to go more towards Kamara as he takes over the third down back role. Which limits Mark Ingram to two downs and competing with Peterson for the most touches. Expect Ingram to lose his place in fantasy this year.
8. Latavius Murray, RB, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 89/9.08)
Okay, if you watch film on this guy, he runs straight up. Like he’s such a tall runner it’s a little scary. Alright, back to the article. The fantasy stock of Murray continues to fall every day this offseason and will continue to fall as Dalvin Cook wins this starting battle in training camp. Murray even admitted early in the offseason Dalvin Cook was ahead of him.
While Murray had been productive in Oakland, his touches are about to fall drastically. The drafting of Dalvin Cook made this a committee backfield at best and the recent injury to Murray’s ankle puts him at a disadvantage to maintain a good level of touches this season. Murray crossed into the end zone twelve times last season running the ball but Cook has the ability to steal the goal line workload as well.
Also, whoever starts at this position has to deal with on the worst offensive lines in the league. The Vikings were the worst at running the ball last season and it will improve (there’s no worse than last season), but Murray won’t lead that change. Expect to keep him as a bench roster spot all season if you take him.
9. Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 78/8.06)
An underappreciated story in the NFL is just how long Frank Gore has been doing it at the NFL level. Thirteen will prove to be Gore’s unlucky number though as the Colts have made this more of a committee backfield.
Gore will start to see more time off the field as Marlon Mack, a rookie out of South Florida, expects to compete for carries and a third down role. Robert Turbin showed his goal line efficiency last year with eight scores and also saw an increase in touches in the second half of the season. It’s the same argument I had for Mark Ingram, if Gore is limited down to a two down role and loses out of end zone carries, it will lead to a fall in his fantasy points.
10. Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots (ADP: 62/7.01)
This is the one I see myself getting completely wrong. I know, that’s a bad way to start off why you shouldn’t pick him. Tom Brady has shown that he trusts Julian Edelman and probably gained more confidence in him after that amazing Super Bowl catch from last year. But it’s a bust article and I’ll try to convince you why he’s on here.
Edelman has never been a red-zone guy. His touchdowns went down from seven in 2015 to three in 2016 and there’s no indication that it will go back up. If anything it seems to be going down with all the free agent additions and especially with the addition of Brandin Cooks who’s caught a total of 17 touchdowns the last two seasons. Rob Gronkowski is always a hit to Edelman’s value if he’s on the field. Second-year man Malcolm Mitchell played well at the end of last season and looks to take on a larger role in the offense. Well, I tried. Leave a comment down below to let me know your thoughts on this pick!