Let’s face it, in the AFC East, the race is to see who finishes second. It can be a little rough being in the same division as the New England Patriots but hopefully beating out the Bills and the Jets is a doable task for new head coach Brian Flores. But what we care about are those big numbers our players rack up for our fantasy teams.
Brian Flores And His Impact On Your Fantasy Team
I should just end the article here – Brian Flores is a defensive coach. He has a rich defensive background and that has nothing to do with us. Easy-peasy right? Negative. If he has the helm of the team, who is the OC? That would be Chad O’Shea, former receivers coach also from New England. Before we get into O’Shea following Flores, how about some background on the new head coach.
Brian Flores began his NFL coaching career with the New England Patriots, so already he starts his new coaching job with a bang. He worked up the ranks of the company and low and behold, this man has the lead of 53 men on a sideline.
2004 and 2005 – Scouting Assistant
2006 and 2007 – Pro Scout
2008 and 2009 – Coaching Assistant
2010 – Offensive Assistant Coach / Special Teams Coach
2011 – Defensive Assistant Coach
2012-2016 – Safeties Coach
2017 and 2018 – Linebackers Coach
ALL WITH NEW ENGLAND.
I put that last part in caps because I thought it had importance. You would think with 15 years under your belt with the same team, you might have some kind of loyalty. This man, however, has loyalty towards the game and leaped his way into the head coaches’ headset for a division rival.
This could be somewhat of a rags-to-riches tale if fellow Patriot coach Chad O’Shea didn’t have a similar upbringing into the NFL.
2003 – Volunteer Special Teams Coach (KC)
2004 and 2005 – Special Teams Coach (KC)
2006-2008 – Special Teams Assistant Coach, Offensive Assistant Coach, and Wide Receivers Coach (MIN)
2009-2018 – Wide Receivers Coach (NE)
From volunteer to calling the shots on offense, O’Shea has clearly shown us what a Cinderella story his career has been. Notice, however, O’Shea has never been the OC of a team. This would be his first time wielding the power of the offensive unit.
What does any of this have to do with fantasy football? Very little, but what it does contribute is the nugget of information that is important to us folk who enjoy creating a new lineup every week. Since being a wide receivers coach from 2006 to 2018, we can put together all the pass completion percentages that O’Shea has accumulated over the years. Not only that but the QBR or total quarterback rating, since it has been recorded from QBs throwing to O’Shea’s receivers.
The QBs go as follows: Brad Johnson, Tarvaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte, and Tom Brady. In the three seasons as the WR coach for Minnesota, they had those three main QBs. This means O’Shea’s beginning attempts to boost his rep in the coaching atmosphere was constantly at a test with the rotation of QBs. None of the QBs managed to receive a higher score than 58.3 on the QBR scale and that was in O’Shea’s last year in Minnesota with Jackson as QB.
Jackson was in the midst of being groomed by the team so his stats are bled through all of O’Shea’s time at Minnesota, but it shows us some of the kinds of consistency he has had before the Patriots. From 2006 to 2008 none of O’Shea’s receivers had a catch rate above 65% (with at least 10 catches during the season), but this, you can say, resides mainly on the quarterback for not doing a good job.
Once O’Shea gets to the Patriots though, the tables have turned. Receivers like Wes Welker, Randy Moss, and Julian Edelman were the corps he was working with. Not only that, Tom Brady was and is the quarterback for the team. Brady’s QBR, since 2006, has been fairly consistent:
2006 – 67.2
2007 – 88.5
2009 – 73.2
2010 – 78.3
2011 – 75.2
2012 – 76.1
2013 – 62.1
2014 – 76.2
2015 – 68.0
2016 – 79.1
2017 – 73.2
2018 – 68.8
Why does this QBR thing matter? Because it’s the numerical representation of how valuable the quarterback is when on the field. All these numbers are fantastic and show us that when Brady has the ball in his hands he does work, especially in the passing game. With that, let’s move on to Ryan Tannehill and some of his numerical values.
In his Miami debut, Tannehill began with a QBR of:
48.4 in 2012
49.3 in 2013
59.3 in 2014
46.3 in 2015
49.4 in 2016
and 33.1 in 2018
Though his numbers aren’t great, Tannehill still connects with his receivers throughout the seasons keeping his catch percentage with individual receivers, for the most part, above 50%. Also, when you analyze his completions rate we can see that his numbers are very similar to Tom Brady. Only once has Tannehill fallen less than a 60% completion rate, whereas all his numbers are a firm 60.0 and up. Brady, the freak of nature he is, has stayed in the 60-68% range his whole career and nothing higher.
For fantasy’s sake, this is good. O’Shea has seen Brady finish with completion ratings that Tannehill himself puts up, so at least that will be familiar. The production, however, is the catch. Tannehill has yet to amaze us with his ability to “control the game” like O’Shea might be used to with Brady.
So the question begs, will Tannehill and the Miami offense be fantasy worthy in the near future? I want to say yes. Simply because O’Shea has been under OC Josh McDaniels forever and might possibly bring over the Patriots quick pass mentality. But my heart says no since Tannehill has not shown up when it matters most and the receiver corps that O’Shea is left with is depleted.
In summation, stay away from Miami when it comes to fantasy relevance.