Week one of the 2018 NFL season has come and gone, and man oh man were there some exciting things to react to! In fantasy football it pays to be ahead of the curve, we want to be proactive, not reactive. This is especially true in dynasty leagues. We’ve spent what feels like an eternity waiting for football to be back and now that it’s here we want to react to everything. Every week in fantasy football there will be overreactions to player performance, but no week has more overreactions than week one. Let’s dive into some overreactions from week one and whether they’re worth buying into or not.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Dynasty Overreactions
Watson may have generated more overreactions from week one than anyone else. So many fans expected him to light the world on fire like he did during the small sample size of games in 2017. Those fans were heartily disappointed. Watson’s week one performance was certainly a letdown as he only completed 50% of his passes for 176 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Watson appeared as though he didn’t know where to look multiple times during the game and was focusing on the pass rush when he should have been focusing on his receivers downfield. On the bright side, the fears over his ability to run following surgery have at least been put to rest. We can’t rush to judgment on how Watson performed against the Patriots with an entire offseason to prepare, however. Watson has shown his ceiling and still has excellent playmakers around him so while expectations should be tempered, don’t give up on him just yet.
“Jimmy G” had a very tough season opener against a stout Vikings defense. Garoppolo completed only 45% of his passes for 261 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Losing his favorite target Marquise Goodwin in the second quarter didn’t help matters much. The 49ers were unable to establish any sort of run game as the combination of Morris and Breida rushed for only 84 yards on the ground. While Garoppolo is not much of a rusher himself, his passing production more than makes up for that. Remember that this is only his first loss as a starter, and the guy that’s been dubbed “Brady Jr.” should bounce back.
Patrick Mahomes has been the subject of a lot of hype and he did not disappoint. Mahomes finished as a top five quarterback in week one. Mahomes threw for 256 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions. This sounds like a great stat line until you realize that he only completed 15 passes. That puts him at a 27% touchdown rate which is utterly ridiculous. Is he good? Yes. Is he that good? Certainly not. Mahomes has the talent to be a great quarterback but lets pump the breaks and consider that a large portion of his yards came after the catch which brings up the next of our overreactions….
Hill has incredible speed and big-play ability, that much is not disputable. He finished as the number one receiver in fantasy for week one with seven receptions for 169 yards, two touchdowns, and a special teams touchdown. When in the open field there may not be anyone more dangerous than Hill with the ball in his hands, however, these are numbers that are not sustainable. Hill is talented but does not possess the same talent as the elite receivers like Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, etc. In this game, Travis Kelce only had one catch for six yards and Kareem Hunt only rushed for 49 yards with zero catches. Hill benefited greatly from those players underperforming in their season opener and is a great “sell high” candidate.
Are our sour dispositions on Cooper even still overreactions at this point? Cooper has so much talent and so much potential but every year he seems to disappoint the fantasy community. Week one saw Cooper only receive three targets and haul in one catch for nine yards. This is not what we expected from a number one receiver on a John Gruden led team. He’s not worth benching just yet but starting Cooper does not feel good at this point. Give him a few weeks to get going as the offense is still getting used to a new system. It would be an overreaction to bench Cooper, but not one to start entertaining trade offers, as he still has some brand name value and is only 24 years old.
Everyone should know by now who Jackson is, he’s the epitome of a “boom or bust” player. Week one Jackson boomed. Chris Godwin has been gaining praise all preseason from the coaching staff and many expect him to surpass Jackson before long. In dynasty, Godwin is the future so Jackson does not possess much value outside of the few times a year he has a week like this. Use this game as an opportunity to sell Jackson to anyone foolish enough to still believe in his long-term viability.
Ajayi had his week one numbers boosted by touchdowns on an otherwise pedestrian performance. 15 carries for 62 yards is almost exactly what Ajayi averaged in 2017. In 14 games played in 2017, Ajayi averaged 14.85 touches per game and 62.36 yards per game with only 1 touchdown the entire regular season. That’s who Ajayi is, he can’t handle a large workload so if he does not score he will likely disappoint you. Couple that with his injury history and this is a player I want nothing to do with in the dynasty format. There will be overreactions to his week one performance, and if you own him, sell him immediately to those owners who are believers. (They’re mostly Eagles fans anyway so don’t feel bad.)
Collins was a huge disappointment to fantasy owners in week one after being considered a must start against a poor Bills defense. Seven rushes for 13 yards and only one reception for six yards is certainly not what was expected. Collins scored on the opening drive in what looked to be the start of a good performance but then after a fumble in the second quarter was pulled from the game. Kenneth Dixon and Javorius Allen both had more touches than Collins, however, Dixon did not enter the game until the Ravens had a 40-point lead. Collins was certainly punished for his fumble, but we must think without the blow-out lead he would have been put back in the game. With Dixon on IR due to an injury, Collins should return to the heavy workload he received in the second half of 2017 with fantasy production to match.
What on earth happened in this game?? No really, I’m asking because I don’t know the answer (Just kidding we all know the answer. Aaron Rodgers on one leg is better than almost every other quarterback with two legs). The Chicago Bears that came out in the second half did not look like the team that was dominating the first half against Green Bay. Burton had six targets and only caught one of them. This is not entirely Burton’s fault however as some of these targets were not very accurate. Not only that, but Mitch Trubisky missed Burton wide open in the end zone on what should have been an easy touchdown. Look that play up, Burton could have stood still and done jumping jacks he was so wide open. He will have better games ahead of him with improved quarterback play.
Cook is 31 years old and on his fourth NFL team. None of that is good for dynasty league football. Don’t fall for the week one magic that led to nine receptions for 180 yards. Cook is a reasonable starter in fantasy now that we’ve lost multiple starting tight ends to possible season ending injuries, but don’t expect anything like his week one performance again. If you already own him try to sell as part of a package to acquire the tight ends who under performed such as Kelce or Burton.