Just in case our first start em sit em article for week 11 was not enough information, here is some more in-depth analysis on who you should start at each position, and who you should leave on your bench. This is also extremely valuable information if you play in daily fantasy leagues.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Start Em Sit Em Part Deux
Rule #1 “Never Walk Away from a Heater”, and my god is Wilson on one. Yes, Atlanta is boasting a well-defended secondary, and yes, they will probably get to Russell often, but the Seahawks have hit full steam and has an offense that is round housing opponents right now. The devastation of the Seattle defense that happened last Thursday is going to open things up for a possible shootout, and I expect there will be a lot of throwing while both teams run games seem clunky at best. Five wins in the last 6 weeks, averaging 302 Pass Y/G, and 2 Pass TD/G is why I am giving Wilson the green light this week.
Matthew Stafford (ESPN, NFL)
This division rivalry is a must win for Detroit. Two games back from Minnesota, they are running out of time to catch them before playoffs. However, with Minnesota playing the unexpectedly stout Rams defense, and a fiery Jared Goff, there is a legitimate chance (I am going to go ahead and say MIN will take the L this week) that they lose at home. Which means this is a perfect time for the Lions to make up ground. Injuries on the Chicago defense, most notably Danny Trevathan, are key factors that are going to allow Stafford to continue his 6-week stat line of 297 Pass Y/G, and 1.6 Pass TD/G.
Derek Carr (ESPN, NFL, CBS)
This one is pretty simple. Carr is surrounded by viable weapons and knows how to use them. He is playing at home (Mexico City but still a “home game”), coming off a win, and playing against a struggling New England defense. He is most likely not going to win this bout with Tom Brady, but it should be a high scoring game, and OAK is not getting it done on the ground, so get that eyeliner out Derek and go earn that salary.
Yes, I stated literally right above this line that the game against OAK should be high scoring, and I stand by that. However, NE spreads the points around and it is hard to predict where they are going to land in any given week. You are playing him if you have him, but for DFS he might not be worth the price tag. Look to Wentz or Wilson if you are going to pony up for a QB this week.
It’s the Browns I know, but it’s also Blake Bortles…. Aside from him not being a good quarterback, in my opinion, this game could get out of hand fast, which means the run game will see a lot of playing time, and Bortles might top out early. He is an interesting value play if you are able to find safe points elsewhere, but Matt Ryan is not much more, and playing a bunch of freshmen. Just saying.
Running Back Starts
Michael Ingram/Alvin Kumara
Play one, or play the other. Hell, play both because it is not going to matter again this week. These two have been playing lights out and Washington’s run defense is middle of the pack at best. There are plenty of points going around this offense and with Ingram at 4.7 Rush Y/C, and Kumara at 6.5 Rush Y/C I anticipate them both placing top 15 again (last week they were top 5 RB’s and top 15 across all positions).
If you know nothing about this matchup, know that Buffalo has given up 14 TD’s to the run this year so far. That is well above the league median of 6 and is, in fact, the worst in the NFL currently. With a banged up QB, L.A. might look to win this on the ground and Gordon should be able to get that taken care of.
Chris Thompson (ESPN, NFL)
Clear the way, Kelley! It’s Thompson Time! A dynamic versatile back is exactly what Washington is going to need to have a chance at beating New Orleans at home. The Saints defense has really turned things around this year and are playing well, but are still susceptible to the run. They have given up 120+ Rush Y/G in 5 separate games so far, are middle of the pack with 5 TD’s given up to the rush, and are nearly dead last when it comes to YDS/A with a solid 4.7. Look for Chris Thompson to exploit those vulnerabilities.
Running Back CAUTION
Doug Martin (CBS)
Playing MIA this week looks like a favorable matchup, but ‘Fitz Magic’ only knows how to make the TB Points disappear. This is pulling everyone’s value down and is why I am staying away from that offense altogether.
Lamar Miller (NFL)
Oh, how I miss watching Deshaun Watson running that offense. To take Houston from what it was last year, to the offensive juggernauts it was this year under him was an incredible feat. I don’t see Tom Savage being able to get the passing game going even against ARI, which allows the Cardinals to focus on the run and stack the box.
Wide Receiver Starts
Tyreek Hill (ESPN, NFL, CBS)
He has been a back and forth boom or bust on basically a weekly schedule this season. This can be explained by a tough matchup on bust weeks and favorable ones on big ones. Well, the New York Giants have lost the will to go on. They are in the bottom 5 of almost all defensive statistics, and with their own coach throwing them under the bus, I would be shocked if they mentally leave the locker room including Janoris Jenkins. I expect Kansas City to run rampant on the Giants and Hill to stack is first back to back ‘boom’ weeks of the season.
Jarvis Landry (ESPN, NFL)
Here are some security points in half or full PPR formats. Averaging 5-6 catches and 40+ yds a week he is consistently locking down 10 pts. Recently he has been tacking on a TD to go with it so Landry is going to be a high floor, high ceiling play this week with Stills likely to miss. If Stills does sit, there are a lot of targets that will get spread out, and I expect a couple to end up in Landry’s hands. Its also Tampa Bay’s defense so the favorable matchup helps.
Michael Crabtree (NFL, CBS)
Playing the New England Defense is really what is making this pick work. Crabtree is talented and has a QB that likes to throw to him, but with mouths to feed in OAK the ceiling here is capped a bit. Carr is going to have to get the work done in the air since the ground game is lacking, and they will have to keep up with Brady.
Wide Receiver CAUTION
As talented as he is, he is hard to trust with Fitzpatrick. He will get looks often, and most likely score 10+ pts this week just on volume, especially against Miami, but at his price, there are better targets. You are obviously playing him in non-DFS formats, but don’t be surprised if he comes up short.
Marvin Jones Jr. (NFL, CBS)
Golladay is back and Jones has taken a target plummet as a result. He has the talent, and I think he has a good matchup, but if he isn’t getting the ball it’s hard to put up points. He may have gained some chemistry with Stafford, but I think there is a high risk, and somewhat low reward to Jones this week.
Matthew Berry (ESPN)
QB – Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Derek Carr, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, Case Keenum, Andy Dalton
RB – LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi, Chris Thompson, DeMarco Murray, Adrian Peterson, Joe Mixon
WR – Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, Nelson Agholor, Brandin Cooks, Jordy Nelson, DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins
Michael Fabiano (NFL Network)
QB – Alex Smith, Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Brett Hundley
RB – Chris Thompson, Jerick McKinnon, Jordan Howard, Marshawn Lynch, Rex Burkhead, Joe Mixon, Lamar Miller, Alfred Morris, Austin Ekeler, Tarik Cohen
WR – Jarvis Landry, Michael Crabtree, Sterling Shepard, Marqise Lee, Jamison Crowder, Jordy Nelson, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Marvin Jones Jr., Mohamed Sanu
Jamie Eisenberg (CBS Sports)
QB – Alex Smith, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Eli Manning, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Case Keenum, Marcus Mariota
RB – Doug Martin, Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman, Adrian Peterson, Ameer Abdullah, Dion Lewis, C.J. Anderson, Latavius Murray, Samaje Perine, Jamaal Williams, Isaiah Crowell
WR – Tyreek Hill, Sterling Shepard, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Keenen Allen, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Kelvin Benjamin, Rishard Matthews, Marvin Jones Jr.